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This offseason, the AFC South became a very interesting division for Fantasy Football owners. This division has improved through free agency signings and emerging stars. The Fantasy Football community used to laugh at this division, but it now features a lot of difference makers for a team.
The AFC South is home to the Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans and Indianapolis Colts. Within the four teams there are three players that are going within rounds one and two, and several other players that will likely be drafted before the midway point of the draft.
Quarterbacks
- Andrew Luck – Indianapolis Colts
- Blake Bortles – Jacksonville Jaguars
- Brock Osweiler – Houston Texans
- Marcus Mariota – Tennessee Titans
Andrew Luck was on his way to being an elite quarterback for both “real” and Fantasy Football. Luck threw for 8,196 yards, 46 touchdowns and 27 interceptions in his first two seasons in the NFL. In 2014 he had 4,761 yards, 40 touchdowns and 16 interceptions. In his third season he almost doubled his career touchdown total, while throwing for almost 5,000 yards and having a 2.5:1 touchdown to interception ratio. But then 2015 came around, and Luck was injured and wasn’t playing well behind arguably the worst offensive line in football. I won’t even discuss those numbers because I feel like they were the exception to the great start of his career. Luck will be healthy and out to prove why the Colts made him the richest quarterback there has ever been!
Blake Bortles won me my Fantasy Football Championship in my league of record. I picked him up on waivers at the beginning of October and he was my starting quarterback for the rest of the year. Bortles did have the most interceptions of any quarterback in 2015, throwing one more than Peyton Manning did. There is also some concern that the Jacksonville defense has improved significantly and that Bortles won’t need to throw as much because they won’t be losing by three touchdowns every game. Given the receiving options that the Jaguars will have in 2016, I don’t see Bortles numbers being that different from the 4,428 yards and 35 touchdowns he had last year.
Brock Osweiler played for the injured (and terrible) Peyton Manning for half of the 2015 season. He managed about 2,000 passing yards and 10 touchdowns in that stretch. That’s not that good. The Texans thought his sample season was pretty good, and paid him fairly well to be their starting quarterback in 2016. I personally believe that Osweiler can be a good quarterback, and he has two amazing weapons at his disposal in DeAndre Hopkins and Lamar Miller. As long as Osweiler feeds them the football over and over again, he has the ability for 3,200 passing yards and 30 touchdowns this season.
I just don’t like the Tennessee Titans passing game this year. Marcus Mariota has stated that he will hand the ball off 40 times a game if it means they will win the game. I am very excited about the rushing attack for the Titans, but I want to avoid everything related to the passing game. Mariota will have value because he’s probably going to run the ball a lot in 2016. He showed he is capable with over 250 rushing yards and two touchdowns in 2015.
Running Backs
- Lamar Miller – Houston Texans
- DeMarco Murray – Tennessee Titans
- TJ Yeldon – Jacksonville Jaguars
- Frank Gore – Indianapolis Colts
- Derrick Henry – Tennessee Titans
- Chris Ivory – Jacksonville Jaguars
Lamar Miller is the best running back in the AFC South. My recent article about how Lamar Miller could be the next Arian Foster is the entire defense you need for the ranking. You can read the article by clicking on this link.
I love DeMarco Murray this year. Is he going to have a similar season to the one he had with Dallas in 2014? No. Is he going to be better than he was last season? Heck yeah! If you take the average of his stats from the past two years, he will have 1,274 rushing yards, 369 receiving yards, 51 receptions and 10 total touchdowns. I think that is a real possibility in an offense that wants to run the ball a lot this season.
TJ Yeldon did not have a stellar year in 2015. He finished with about 1,000 total yards and 3 touchdowns. He did have 36 receptions on 46 targets, finishing with a catch rate of 78%. Chris Ivory was signed in the offseason to handle goal line work. Ivory is not expected to be a factor in the passing game, but also has a history of being injured or playing hurt. I expect that Yeldon will handle most of the work and Ivory will only be utilized at the goal line, which is why I have Yeldon ranked at three and Ivory at six.
2015 marked the third time that Frank Gore failed to reach 1,000 rushing yards in his 11-year career. Gore has stated in interviews that his primary goal is to get to that rushing mark again in 2016. Gore enters the season 33 years old, but he continues to amaze everyone at how well he plays. With Andrew Luck back and the offense line improvements, I don’t see why Gore can’t get back to 1,000 yards this year.
Derrick Henry should have been drafted to another team instead of being drafted to the Titans who already had a starting running back. Henry is a big-bodied running back who will have plenty of chances to score this season. The Titans have expressed that they want to run the ball a lot, so Henry will see the field more to give DeMarco Murray breaks during the game. Most of Henry’s touches will be in the red zone and the goal line. Henry should see 8-10 touches a game in my opinion.
Wide Receivers
- DeAndre Hopkins – Houston Texans
- Allen Robinson – Jacksonville Jaguars
- TY Hilton – Indianapolis Colts
- Allen Hurns – Jacksonville Jaguars
- Donte Moncrief – Indianapolis Colts
- Phillip Dorsett – Indianapolis Colts
- Rishard Matthews – Tennessee Titans
- Dorial Green-Beckham – Tennessee Titans
- Kendall Wright – Tennessee Titans
- Will Fuller – Houston Texans
If you don’t have DeAndre Hopkins ranked as at least the fifth best wide receiver in Fantasy Football this season, then stop reading this article and take up Fantasy Cricket. He had 111 receptions for over 1,500 yards and 11 touchdowns last season, and he had CRAP throwing to him last year. Hopkins had a different quarterback each week it seemed. Brock Osweiler coming into Houston is a huge upgrade for Hopkins, who I think could easily replicate his 2015 season.
Allen Robinson became a superstar in 2015. He had 80 receptions for 1,400 yards and 14 touchdowns. Every 100 yards he had he scored a touchdown. Blake Bortles clearly has a favorite in Jacksonville and I don’t think that changes in 2016. I think the yards and receptions stay the same, but he’ll likely regress in touchdowns.
Andrew Luck is back and should be healthy for 2016, which means that TY Hilton becomes relevant in Fantasy Football again. With the exception of receptions, Hilton’s stats aren’t different without Luck. Luck is out to prove he was worth the contract he was given and Hilton should be the benefactor. Luck and Hilton has the best chemistry together, which means that Hilton should be the beneficiary of chip on Luck’s shoulder.
I don’t particularly like Allen Hurns this season, but I like him more than the other names on this list. Hurns was only relevant in Fantasy Football because he had 10 touchdowns. Those touchdowns came on 64 receptions and just over 1,000 yards. Hurns scored a touchdown every 100 yards like Robinson, but the Jaguars are going to be a better team this year. Hurns will be the odd man out due to the limited targets in Jacksonville. He could still have 60 receptions, but he’s only going to have about 800 yards and four touchdowns.
Donte Moncrief is the only other receiver I would draft on my list. As the second option for Andrew Luck, he’s going to have relevance throughout the season. The rest of the wide receiver options in the AFC South are “wait and see” players for me. I truly want nothing to do with the receivers from the Titans though, but someone has to be relevant right?
Tight Ends
- Delanie Walker – Tennessee Titans
- Julius Thomas – Jacksonville Jaguars
- Dwayne Allen – Indianapolis Colts
- Ryan Griffin – Houston Texans
The only pass catcher for the Titans that I would like to have on my team is Delanie Walker. I play predominantly in PPR leagues, and Walker showed that he could be dominant in PPR leagues. When you look at his numbers overall, they really aren’t far from Rob Gronkowski’s numbers. If you want to read about that, check out my article at this link.
Julius Thomas has shown he can be a weekly starter at the tight end position. While playing in Denver he had 12 touchdowns each season. Last season he fought through injuries and wasn’t completely effective when he was playing. If Thomas can remain healthy, he will be a bargain/steal on draft day.
Dwayne Allen has a lot to prove. Coby Fleener stealing targets was the excuse for his poor production. Allen needs to either prove he can be a relevant tight end or spend the season as a free agent in Fantasy Football.
I did a lot of research to determine that I don’t want anyone at the tight end position for Houston. I only included Ryan Griffin’s name on this list to let you all know that he is the starting tight end of the Texans.
D/ST
- Houston Texans
- Jacksonville Jaguars
- Indianapolis Colts
- Tennessee Titans
Kickers
- Nick Novak – Houston Texans
- Adam Vinatieri – Indianapolis Colts
- Jason Myers – Jacksonville Jaguars
- Ryan Succop – Tennessee Titans
The only D/ST worth drafting is the Houston Texans. JJ Watt may miss some games because of offseason surgery, although I doubt it. Jadeveon Clowny should be healthy and ready to play a full season. I would not draft any of the other D/ST’s in this division. They could be options if you’re streaming though.
Kickers are a dime a dozen with the exception of Stephen Gostkowski. Find one you like to start the season and stream from there.
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